The needle has dropped and the music has begun. A familiar
dance will now resume as I feel the crisp autumn air gaining strength, eventually
bringing forth a fluffy white blanket from the skies. Of course, we toss a few
logs onto the fire to heat up the stove as we eagerly watch the participants
angle for a dancing partner in the “Free Agent Ball”. Starry eyed suitors will
vie for the attention of the homecoming queens (or kings in this case) and
debutants first in hopes that they can make their 2015 dreams a reality. After
all, there are plenty of wallflowers just waiting for that knowing glance. They
can be had for less effort, but as Mickey Gilley famously sung “Don’t All the
Girls get Prettier at Closing Time” and there is plenty of room for error with
this group as they can add financial crisis to an unsuspecting mope. Boston has
made it intentions known on their primary target, Pablo Sandoval, but they also
are trying to rekindle the affections of an estranged ace in Jon Lester as they
attempt to address their most pressing needs – starting pitching and third
base.
Every off season, it absolutely amazes me how so many
millions of dollars get thrown at seemingly average to above average baseball
players. Toronto signs 31 year old Russell Martin and everyone says they are
making a statement for a run at the post season. The guy clearly had a terrific
season in 2014 with a slash of .290/.402/.430 with 11HR and 67RBI. For this, he
gets 82 million for 5 years. Two years previous, he only hit .211 in New York
and hasn’t turned in an OBP close to his shiny number last season since 2008
when he was in Los Angeles when he registered .385. Not to be outdone, the
Oakland A’s Billy Beane continued his myopic muddling as he served up a 3 year
30 million deal to former Royal Billy Butler. Butler is a dinosaur in today’s
game as he is as versatile as a cinder block. Simply put Butler represents the
prototypical lead footed DH who didn’t “walk the walk” this past season hitting
only 9 homers and driving in a modest 67 runs while registering a slash of
.271/.323/.379. Big money for a pair of wallflowers, and I really think Oakland
has the beer goggles on with respect to Butler.
Now the Sox have been wooing the premier prize, “The Panda”
and, while he certainly is an upgrade from the pair mentioned above in age and
potential, the Pablo Sandoval chatter as he visited Boston bordered on
annoying. Tweets posts such as: “Panda has landed at Logan” and “Boston wines
and dines the Panda” cluttered up thousands of Twitter feeds. Am I missing something here? I mean the guy
is an above average player, but I was totally against the idea of giving him 6
years and north of 100 million dollars. The talk now is 5 years at 80 -90
million and that makes me warm up to Pablo somewhat. However, I was never in
favor of Sandoval as Boston’s primary dance partner with the starting rotation
in shambles as I thought two top quality arms would be higher on Cherington’s agenda.
With a WAR rating of 6.1 during his 2011 all star season, he
trailed only Evan Longoria among all third sackers in the Majors in this
category. It is a “buyer beware”
scenario here though as he has not come close to that value since then. There
has been noticeable decline in Sandoval’s OPS from 2011 to 2012 as well. The
number dropped significantly from .909 to .789. From 2012, there has been a
smaller incremental slide in this area to present day, but nevertheless, a
reduction just the same as this now sat at .739 for the 2014 campaign. His
plate discipline was on the weak side with a 6.1 % walk rate to go along with a
.324 OBP. Pablo also led all Major League third baseman in swing percentage
outside the strike zone last season, waving at a 48.1% clip. His ISO rating is
on the weak side at .136. It was thought that Pablo could be heir apparent to
the DH position but I think we’ll all realize what we had in Papi when his 30
HR 100 RBI seasons ride off into the sunset. Sandoval won’t produce to that
degree even with 81 games at Fenway. Also, you can forget effectiveness from
the right side of the plate as he hit a Jackie Bradleyesque .199 against
lefties last year. Coming off a fabulous 2009 season in which Sandoval hit 25
HR and drove in 90 while hitting .290, weight issues plagued him as he was relegated
to a bench player in 2010. His production dropped to 13 HR and 63 RBI with a
.268 BA. Moving forward, stipulations surrounding a target weight should be
included in any contractual language.
As the Rolling Stones claim though, time is on Sandoval’s
side as he is only 28 years old and plays solid defense. His post season
numbers are outlandish and that is what is really driving the “Pandamonium” over
Sandoval. He has a phenomenal .344 batting average in the post season, and
being a cornerstone on a team that has garnered 3 world titles in 5 years
hasn’t hurt his supposed worth on the free agent market. Sandoval ranked fourth
in both WAR and RBI for National League third basemen in 2014 with marks of 3.3
and 73 respectively, and he was third overall in homers with 16. His OPS, as
mentioned above, dropped him to seventh for qualifying peers at the position in
the Senior Circuit.
The timing is perfect for his coming out party and good for
him. He will be overpaid, but his affable demeanor in the clubhouse, clutch
hitting post season prowess, cute nickname and gregarious smile all seem
infectious to Boston backers clamoring for their first decent third baseman
since 2010 when Adrian Beltre graced the hot corner.
In order to gage exactly what we are getting, I decided to
have a bit of fun. I did a little research of all Major Leaguers that fall into
Pablo’s age grouping for career numbers. The nuttiness of the mega millions in
today’s baseball economic stratosphere make it difficult to quantify Pablo’s
talents with respect to peers from simpler times. I mean even with all the
dollars being tossed at the Panda, we aren’t going to be seeing Mike Schmidt
walk through the door. So I came across a name that I remembered from my
younger days – Richie Hebner. Of all the names that were churned out for stats
at the beginning of their career to age 27, Hebner and Sandoval have some
striking similarities.
Richie Hebner is Massachusetts boy from Norwood which is
part of the greater Boston area. The left handed hitting third baseman broke in
with the Pittsburgh Pirates and spent eight seasons there from 1968 – 1975. Career earnings were not available on Baseball
Reference for Hebner’s time in Pittsburgh, but suffice to say, it was a
pittance by today’s comparisons. Known as “The Gravedigger”, Hebner would help
his dad and brother Dennis during the off season in the cemetery that his Dad
operated to supplement his income.
My problem with Baseball Reference is that I simply don’t
have enough time to really poke around as much as I’d like to as it is a
fantastic resource. Hebner was never known as a great defender, so Pablo has
the advantage in this category. However, I did find some interesting offensive stats
when comparing Hebner to Sandoval for similar age statistics and years played
and the parallels are amazing. Have a look below at the comparisons of Hebner’s
Pittsburgh days and Sandoval’s with the Giants:
 |
| Click to enlarge |
To take this kinship one step further, Hebner also had a
flare for the post season dramatics as well. Despite the fact Pittsburgh lost
the 1970 NL pennant to the Cincinnati Reds, Hebner was 6-8 with 2 walks. He was
very much in the middle of things the following year as the Pirates once again
were division champs and marched all the way to a world championship in 1971. While
facing San Francisco in the NLCS, he clubbed a game winning solo shot of Giants’
great Juan Marichal in Game Three to give Pittsburgh a 2-1 lead in the series.
In Game 4, Hebner took another hall of famer deep, this time the victim was Gaylord
Perry, as his three run homer brought Pittsburgh back from a 5-2 deficient and
they went on to win the game 9-5. To complete his trifecta against legendary
pitchers, Richie also hit a three run homer off Baltimore’s Jim Palmer in Game
Two of the 1971 World Series, a game which the Pirates won in a laugher 11-3.
In his post season career, Hebner hit .270 with 4 homers and 16 RBI. Even
though Sandoval’s post season numbers outdistance him here by a generous
margin, the argument can still be made for Richie being a clutch performer when
the lights shone the brightest. It should also be noted that Hebner led all
National League third basemen with a 5.3 WAR in 1972 as he helped lead
Pittsburgh to the post season for the third straight year before the Pirates
succumbed to Cincinnati for the second time in three years. Hebner playoff
success fizzled against the Reds as he batting only .188 in the series.
In all, Hebner played 18 years in the Bigs and had a 162
game average of 17 HR and 76 RBI while slashing .276/.358/.438. Seven years
into Panda’s career sees his 162 game average at 20 HR and 86 RBI with a slash
of .294/.346/.465. Sandoval has it over Hebner
in the batting average and slugging but trailing in OBP. Richie’s power numbers
dropped off significantly in the last five years of his lengthy career.
So, if Boston has its way I guess its welcome home Richie
Hebner! Oh, and one other thing, Gravedigger. If the Boston front office makes
you their primary top tier free agent this off season, you better bring your
shovel along. A few plots may need to be spaded for some of the Boston brain trust.
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